Where did the wheels fall off?

In 1989 Karlheinz Brandenburg, a postgraduate student at the University of Erlangen in southern Germany changed everything. You probably don’t even know what Karlheinz did, he doesn’t get mentioned much. He invented the mp3, a way of compressing digital music which makes it easy to store and, crucially, easy to share. That one breakthrough quietly kicked off what we now call the digital music revolution.

We all know what happened next.

Music became files. Files became shareable.

First illegally via platforms like Napster, then “legitimately” via streaming platforms like Spotify and iTunes.

(Although depending on who you ask, there’s still a faint whiff of robbery in the room.)

Now streaming is the dominant format. In a short space of time buying and owning physical formats seemed just a bit inconvenient. As of 2026 67% of total music industry revenue comes from streaming vs just 16.1% from physical sales (Exploding Topics). It seems convenience has won. Decisively.

This, combined with other technological advances has created something close to a perfect storm for musicians.

Because here’s the part that sounds like progress… but isn’t entirely: Releasing music is now easy.

Anyone can write, record, and publish a track from their bedroom. What used to take months and serious money can now be done in a few hours for free.

Which sounds brilliant.

Until you realise what happens when everyone can do it.

Here's the problem

What happened next was we didn’t just democratise music creation. We flooded the system. Around 100,000 new songs are uploaded to Spotify every single day. That’s not competition. That’s saturation.

So now, it doesn’t matter how good the music is. On any given day, an artist is now competing with 99,999 other tracks… and an algorithm that doesn’t care how long you spent writing your chorus.

With the ability self-release, musicians no longer need to rely on prostituting themselves to the labels for their music to reach the masses. Back in the days of physical sales, there were countless record labels. Big ones, small ones, weird ones.

Now there are three:

• Sony Music Entertainment,
• Universal Music Group,
• Warner Music Group.
• 
  

Together, they control roughly 85% of the market. That leaves everyone else to fight over the remaining 15%. It’s less an industry now… more a funnel.

Let's talk about the money

Brace yourself. This is where it gets really 'icky'!

Spotify pays roughly $0.005 per stream. That gets split between the songwriter, the publisher, whoever owns the master, the musicians, the producer, the coffee order ... everything!

And before our favourite musician sees a penny, they need at least 1,000 streams, with each listener sticking around for 30 seconds or more.

So yes… technically you can earn money from your music. In the same way you can technically fill a swimming pool with a teaspoon.

But can't musicians earn money in other ways?

Well, yeah - good point but in reality, that's a bit of a patchwork quilt held together with hope.

Merchandise

T-shirts, vinyl, tote bags, the occasional questionable hoodie. It can work, but only if you already have an audience that cares enough to buy that stuff.

No audience, no sales. And even when it does work, margins aren’t exactly life-changing unless you’re shifting serious volume.

Performing live

Traditionally the safety net. The place where artists could actually earn something resembling real money.

Except… small venues are disappearing.

Grassroots spaces, the kind that build careers from the ground up, are closing at an alarming rate. Rising costs, licensing issues, dwindling footfall. The ladder is still there, but someone’s been quietly removing the lower rungs.

Which leaves most artists in a slightly surreal position:

They’re not full-time musicians.
They’re full-time people with jobs… who also make music.

The reality for a huge number of independent artists is that music isn’t their income stream, it’s their second shift. Evenings, weekends, spare hours stitched together between everything else.

Passion-funded rather than profit-driven.

And then there’s this

If you are one of the few who gets signed, you might find yourself in what’s known as a 360 deal.

The label doesn’t just take a cut of your recorded music, they take a slice of everything. Touring, merch, brand deals, the lot.

From the label’s perspective, it makes sense. If they’re investing in building you, they want a return across the board and frankly just relying on making money from the recorded bit just isn't enough anymore.

From the artist’s perspective… it’s a bit like finally getting a seat at the table and realising you’ve brought the food, cooked the meal, and still owe rent on the chair.

So yes, there are other revenue streams.

But most of them either rely on having an audience you don’t yet have… or sharing the income once you finally do.

The death of innovation

There is incredible music being made right now. I hear it all the time. Even in my 50's I still get that buzz when something genuinely new hits my ears.

But here’s the uncomfortable question

When was the last major shift in mainstream music?

Hip hop? That’s over 40 years ago. Meanwhile, much of what’s pushed by the major labels feels… safe. Familiar. Proven.

Take Ed Sheeran. Hugely successful. Clearly knows what he’s doing. But nothing there that would’ve confused someone 50 years ago. How many big artists can you name that are pretty much doing what Ed does? It works. That’s the point. But it doesn’t move things forward.

The big three labels who own the lion's share of the market are just playing safe and selling what sells.

Meanwhile, the real risk-taking is happening elsewhere.

Independent artists, with less to lose, are experimenting more, pushing harder, making genuinely interesting work. I’ve heard it firsthand.

Through projects like The Jam, the live music project I run, I’ve filmed over 90 independent artists in the last year alone. Every year I produce a music video for one of them for free (see one here).

This is where things are actually evolving. The concern is… it’s happening way too quietly.

My worry is that the real innovators don't dissapear because they lack talent, but because they lack visibility ... and eventually money.

What about artificial intelligence?

Oh yeah! Just as things weren’t complicated enough, along comes AI.

We’re now at a point where music can be generated, styled, and even performed without the artist ever stepping into a studio. Which means talented musicians aren’t just competing with other musicians anymore… they’re competing with people who are good at writing prompts.

And in some cases, they’re competing with versions of themselves too!

AI models are already being trained on existing artists, cloning voices, styles, even entire sonic identities. The line between influence and imitation is getting blurry… fast.

To be clear, this isn’t all bad. There’s potential here. Tools like this could open up new creative directions and lower barriers even further. But it does add another layer to an already crowded space.

I’ve gone deeper into this in another post (worth a read if you want the full rabbit hole), but for now it’s enough to say: The game didn’t just change. It’s still changing.

What's the solution?

In theory it's easy but in practice much harder. Independent artists have to do everything that a record label would have previously done for them. They have to operate like a small business.

So they have to step up and learn all the things they didn't need to know 20 years ago.

• Marketing
• Content
• Audience building
• Distribution
• Management
• Finance

Not just creating music.

Because in a world driven by algorithms, visibility isn't a byproduct anymore.

Of course the other solution is the big three start growing some balls and taking some risks but I wouldn't hold your breath.

There is a future for new music but it's a very different one to the world we were living in when I had a wall of CDs in my living room.

Is there a future for new music?

It certainly doesn't look like the music industry I grew up with.

If you're a music lover

Start digging. Don't rely on Spotify's algorithm to serve up music for you (other digital streaming platforms are available - and most of them are way better). Get out there and start looking for new music. Visit small venues and support unsigned artists. Follow them on social media and encourage them. Pay them for their talent and start supporting them.

If you're a musician

The job has changed whether you like it or not. Making great music is still the foundation, but it’s no longer enough on its own. You have to think like a creator and a distributor.

That means understanding how attention works, building an audience, showing up consistently, and giving people a reason to care before you ask them to listen.

It’s not about selling out, it’s about not being invisible. The artists who figure that out are the ones who stand a chance of cutting through. The rest… risk making brilliant music that nobody ever hears.